The Miami Dolphins quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired and with Tyler Huntley getting the start under center, we look to the Dolphins running back to lead the way.
De’Von Achane has been reliable on the ground, and my Titans vs. Dolphins predictions explain why betting on the RB to exceed his rushing yard total is the way to go. Read all about it in my NFL picks for September 30.
Titans vs Dolphins MNF prediction
My best betDevon Achane Over 56.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysisMike McDaniel’s offense is a mess, with the Miami Dolphins down their top two quarterbacks and leaning on recently signed Tyler Huntley under center on Monday night.
Huntley has proven to be a capable Plan B (or Plan C in this case) during his career in Baltimore but has had little time to learn the complexities of McDaniel’s playbook. That will have the Dolphins keeping it simple and anchoring their attack in the run game.
Running back De’von Achane will feature prominently against the Tennessee Titans in prime time with his rushing yards total at 56.5 O/U — especially if fellow RB Raheem Mostert remains sidelined.
Mostert has missed the past two outings with a chest injury, and McDaniel didn’t seem convinced he’d be available in Week 4, even with the extra day off. That leaves the bulk of carries for Achane, who logged 62% and 74% of snaps in the previous two contests.
He ran 22 times for 96 yards against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 but followed that with 11 carries for only 30 yards in a one-sided loss at Seattle last Sunday, with the Fins falling behind quickly and running on only 32% of their offensive snaps.
Monday’s spread, which has bounced between Miami -2.5 and +1.5 all week, predicts a closer contest and a game script that allows McDaniel to call on his running back early and often, helping take the pressure of a backup QB.
Tennessee’s defense is better than advertised and has played especially strong against the pass. Versus the rushing game, however, the Titans rank in the middle of the road in EPA allowed per handoff and are 18th in both defensive success rate per run and yards allowed per carry.
Player projections for Achane range from just short of 50 yards to highs of 74 yards, with a higher ceiling if Mostert is ruled out for Monday (currently questionable). My forecast for the Fins’ running back is at 64 rushing yards, but the QB situation and RB depth could easily pump up that production.
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Titans vs Dolphins MNF same-game parlay
Devon Achane 50+ rushing yardsDevon Achane 3+ receptionsDolphins team total Under 19.5 Points
+365 at FanDuel
Achane will be the anchor on offense, and his projections are as high as 70+ rushing yards.
Achane is also a big part of the passing game and will be a checkdown option for a QB3 under center.
McDaniel will keep it simple for one of the slower offenses in the land. All that pre-snap motion and short gains will keep the Fins short of 20 points against a strong Titans defense.
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Titans vs Dolphins odds
Titans vs Dolphins live odds
Titans vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +1.5 (-120) | Miami -1.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -104 | Miami -112
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-110) | Under 38.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Titans vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dolphins were already without QB1 Tua Tagovailoa and QB2 Skylar Thompson suffered a rib injury in Week 3. That had the QB situation for Monday’s game up in the air when Week 4 odds opened. The Dolphins opened as 1.5-point home chalk, but Titans money flipped that spread to Tennessee -1.
- Later in the week, Miami made the call to put Tyler Huntley in at quarterback, and that pushed this spread back over the fence and sits at Dolphins -2.5 as of Sunday afternoon. Covers Consensus shows 52% of picks backing the home side.
- The Over/Under total hit the board at 40 points and has dropped to as low as 36.5 points — the shortest total on the Week 4 odds board.
- The weather in Miami will be hot and muggy on Monday night, with humidity at 76% and “feels like” temperatures at 104 degrees.
